So lets us look at some
basic rules/criteria on the basis of which we can filter out
stocks. In this method, we will not look at stocks from the point of view of a Chartered
Accountant, we will instead look at it from a traders perspective.
The purpose is not to
select the best stocks as it is to eliminate/reject stocks that are not suited
for trading. From a given list of say 100 stocks, we can eliminate stocks that
are not suited for trading.
Criteria 1 : P/B Ratio (Price to Book Value Ratio )
P/B Ratio
|
State of Stock
|
|
>5
|
Expensive
|
Reject Stock
|
2-5
|
Normal
|
|
<2
|
Undervalued
|
The P/B ratio is in many
cases could vary based upon the industry. So some companies that own machinery
and land are bound to have higher book value compared to a company in the
services sector.
But for the purpose of our
screening, it is better to avoid all stocks where the P/B Ratio is greater than
5.
Criteria 2 : Debt/Equity Ratio
Companies with higher debt
are more risky compared to companies with lower debt. For our consideration, we
will reject all stocks with Debt to Equity ration greater than 2
Debt /Equity Ratio
|
State of Stock
|
|
< 1
|
Good
|
|
1-2
|
Ok
|
|
>2
|
Problematic
|
Reject Stock
|
Criteria 3 : Interest Coverage Ratio
The interest coverage
ratio measures how many times a company can cover its current interest payment
with its available earnings. In other words, it measures the margin of safety a
company has for paying interest on its debt during a given period. The lower a
company’s interest coverage ratio is, the more its debt expenses burden the
company. When a company's interest coverage ratio is 2.0 or lower, its ability
to meet interest expenses may be questionable.
Any company with an
interest coverage ratio of less than 2.0 will be automatically rejected.
Interest Coverage Ratio
|
State of Stock
|
|
< 2.0
|
Problematic
|
Reject Stock
|
Criteria 4 : Operating Profit Margin
If the (Sales - Expenses)
are increasing over the last 5 years, the company is in good shape. The OPM % over last 5
years has to be positive (at the least). We will reject all stocks that have a OPM % in the negative.
Criteria 5 : Calculate Fair Value of Stock
Finally we need to calculate the price at which to purchase a given stock. For that we need to identify the fair value of the stock.
We calculate the EPS yearly growth taken over the last three years.
We calculate the EPS yearly growth taken over the last three years.
Fair value Multiplier = EPS yearly growth / PE
One way of thinking about
the PE ratio is that it is the "Expected Growth by the Market". As
an example, if the P/E of Infy is 22.20 , the market expects a growth of 22.20
% per annum.
Example: If yearly EPS
growth of Infy is 30 and PE ratio is 22.20, then Fair Value Multiplier
= EPS / PE = 30/22.20 = 1.35
Fair Value = (Market Price
* Fair Value Multiplier)
If Fair Value of the stock
is above the Current Market Price, then the stock is undervalued.
Criteria 6 : PEG Ratio
The price/earnings
to growth ratio (PEG ratio) is a stock's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio divided
by the growth rate of its earnings for a specified time period.
PEG Ratio
= Price/EPS / EPS Growth
Debt /Equity Ratio
|
State of Stock
|
|
< 1
|
Undervalued
|
|
1-2
|
Normal
|
|
>2
|
Expensive
|
Reject Stock
|
The lesser the PEG ratio, the better. For the purpose of our
screner, we will reject all stocks that have a PEG ratio > 2.
All the data for calculations have been taken from Screener Here is the link to the actual Google Sheet:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iYzfQ6oQjmW_tqz_sW2ERURJZVDUmqKcsKvYguI4rkI/edit?usp=sharing
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1iYzfQ6oQjmW_tqz_sW2ERURJZVDUmqKcsKvYguI4rkI/edit?usp=sharing
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